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Roaring Asian giants: will India succeed

Rise of India and extra-ordinary rise of East Asian Tigers have completely transformed the world political chess board arrangement. Intense political rivalry has shifted from Europe to Asia. All new political and economic alignments are taking place in this zone. Talk of Asian Security Diamond, SCO, Malabar Exercise, OBOR, INSTC, PQI, Project Mausam, AIIB, etc. are all the brain storming events going on in the minds of Asian Giants and are taking some concrete shape preparing vast battle grounds for the rivals to act on.

Even the outsiders like USA or European economies are making all efforts to get maximum Asian countries on their boat. Examples can be seen in the form of TPP, EAS, ASEM, ARF, etc. where USA or Russia wants its presence in this area to share the benefits with rising stars on the one hand and have strategic benefit on the other.

Which country has taken the initial lead?

There is no doubt that China has taken the initial lead with active and dominant participations in OBOR, AIIB, SCO, and CPEC. More over it has taken the lead role in the formation of NDB and BCIM. These geo-political and economic strategies of China have definitely out-played India in the modern era of economy driven strategic initiatives.

How sustainable is Chinese initiative?

Chinese initiatives are driven by its economic strength. This economic strength is due to

  1. Early economic initiatives taken by China in the form economic liberalization that attracted huge investment from the developed world.
  2. Strictly regulated market of China also attracted investors that assured them definite return.
  3. Ease of doing business, promoted by the Chinese administration also enhanced their prospects.
  4. “Hong Kong Factor” also played its role in assuring investors “the Capitalist Guided Independence”
  5. “Demographic Dividend” also played its role in attracting the investors of developed economy of “Snail Era”.

However, the dark sides of this “Bubble Boom” are the major impediments those have started emerging since, mid-2014. Such constraints are:

  1. Strictly regulated market is good for initial investments but it cannot sustain for with growing economic awareness that brings in the claim for rights alongside duty.
  2. Manipulation for long again cannot give continuous boost to the economy, e.g. currency devaluation cannot give permanent and continuous leverage to export.
  3. Extravaganza in the form of space, nuclear or missile programmes can impart flying color during war time like it did for US economy during World Wars but during the present era of economy driven “Muscle Power”, such efforts may sacrifice future.

Can India match Chinese move?

India with its large young population has the potential to match Chinese move. However, it has certain limitations like:

  1. Infra-structural bottlenecks
  2. Lack of technology
  3. Lack of skilled man power
  4. Bureaucratic constraints
  5. Lack of social coherence
  6. Absence of ease of doing business
  7. Slow pace of economic reforms
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